Prediction markets are starting to become more and more mainstream as a way to”reconcile contradictory signals..” according to the FT column The Short View:
The elections seem to be all about the economy. Mr McCain’s Intrade chances of winning bottomed on the same day that the S&P 500 bottomed last month. Mr Obama’s chances hit their peak a day after the oil price reached a top.
Prediction markets more accurately reflect consumer opinions as they are more timely and dynamic than a poll, which largely only reflect sentiment on the day the poll was conducted. Check out Hubdub for prediction markets covering everything from the Olympics to the Presidential Election.
The graph above reflects changing opion about who will be Obama’s VP selection, as you can see opinion has shifted significantly over time in response to breaking news, changes in sentiment and other factors.
October 29, 2008 at 12:03 pm |
Well said.