July 31, 2008
Jeremy Grantham, money manager and chairman of GMO, in the recent edition of his newsletter; “Meltdown! The Global Competence Crisis”, looked at house prices and the ratio of US median house prices to family income. He concludes that: “In order for house prices to reach normal from here, they must either decline 17% immediately or experience four flat years while income catches up, or some combination.” Yikes! And I assume that doesn’t include the normal tendency for bubbles to overrun on the downside!

US House Price Outlook
Back home (UK) his outlook is even more grim. According to Grantham: “If UK house prices go all the way back to trend, and history says that is extremely likely, then the UK financial system will definitely need some serious bailouts and the global ripples will be substantial. Of all the negative possibilities out there, and there are plenty, real pain in this area is the most likely; I would say, nearly certain.”

UK House Price Outlook
“Events must now be disturbing to everyone, and I for one am officially scared!”
Source: Jeremy Grantham, GMO, July 30, 2008.
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Posted by warrickt
July 31, 2008

Free press in China?....not likely!
The air over Beijing serves as a handy metaphor for the way the Chinese Government is stifling the freedom of the press. Journalists from all over the world have started arriving in Beijing to discover that internet access is censored and restricted and movements closely monitored.
And it gets worse…despite the agreement the IOC made with the Chinese Government in 2001 to allow the press the freedom to report as they see fit, it turns out that they have known all along that this won’t be the case.
The Chinese economy is booming, business is good…not only for Chinese companies but also Western news organizations with news properties in China, networking and software compaine happy to make a few bucks helping China with technology to censor the Net and many others.
So don’t expect to see any journalist boycotting the Olympics. I guess business must be good for the IOC too!
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Posted by warrickt
July 30, 2008
Are these people nuts! Last weekend I took my son along to our ‘local’ rodeo – the annual Driscoll Ranch Rodeo. He loves all the ‘cowboy’ stuff – horses, bulls, ropin’, guns – you get the picture.
The bronco riding and bull roping are always the most exciting and I took this picture of the first rider out of the gate.

Ride em' Cowboy - Do you want to be a Rodeo rider?
As you would imagine he was pretty banged up after coming down to earth with the horse on top of him. The next rider fared better, but the horse was another matter – it crashed into the barrier in front of the crowd at full speed, knocking itself out and had spasms in the dust.
I asked my son after all this excitement; “Do you want to be a rodeo rider?” and the reply, a resounding “Not anymore!”…Good lad!

Barrel racing - lots of fun!
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Posted by warrickt
July 29, 2008
A few years ago I got the chance to ride L’Alpe d’Huez – 8 miles, 21 switchbacks, average gradient of 8% – that infamous climb from Bourg d’Oisans on which Lance Armstrong laid his rivals to waste in 2001 and 2004 and LeMond crossed the finish line hand in hand with Hinault to create one of the Tour’s enduring images.

15.5 Kms, 21 switchbacks, 8% gradient
This years tour, and Carlos Sastre’s magnificant solo ride to win Stage 17 and clinch the Yellow Jersey from his teammate, brought back memories of that day. It was July 20, 2004, the day before the infamous and first ever time trial up L’Alpe – the one where Lance caught and passed his arch nemesis Jan Ulrich to seal his 6th tour Victory.

Lance powering to win Stage 17, 2004
From the bottom L’Alpe appears innocuous enough, but when you turn the corner out of Bourg and hit the first climb it sort of hits you – the mythical nature of the climb, those who have ridden this road before, the majesty of the Alps – and what lays ahead. Its not a hard climb as such, its just relentless, like going up stairs for 15kms. You look up and see the bends further up and wonder how you will ever get there! Lance did the time trial in around 50 minutes, I managed 1 hr 26 minutes, respectable enough. The crowd was immense – they had camped there for days in the thousands to see their idols for the brief few seconds it would take them to fly past – but every one of them cheered me and my fellow riders every inch of the way and gave me my enduring memory of that day – for the briefest of moments I could believe I was riding the Tour.
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Posted by warrickt
July 23, 2008
About a year ago Iwrote a review of my then new Cervelo R3 (http://taylorpost.wordpress.com/2007/07/31/cervelo-r3-review/). Well I have now done over 5,000 miles over some very varied terrain, including several hundred miles in SW Australia, a number of charity rides, several races (mainly crits) and ‘challenges’ like the Death Ride!

Taken near the top of Sierra Rd during the Tour of California
I service the bike myself, although othet than a decent clean, lube and torquing of various bolts absolutely nothing has gone wrong. I also had two crashes last winter, one of which required a new derailleur hanger to fix and some new bar tape, but despite the various cosmetic scratches there has been no lasting impact on the bike (my descending became a lot more tentative for a while though until the roads dried out).
So, what of riding the bike? I live in a farily hilly area so most rides involve some moderate or significant vert and for this the Cervelo is a pure joy. I am by no means the fastest in the Peleton up the climbs, but when it counts and I need to lay down some power every ounce of effort gets immeditaley and smoothly transferred to the rear wheel – it flies up hills! On rollers, rough terrain or the flats I am pretty fast and usually in the top 1/3 of the group, where the bikes comfort, sublime handling and good manners really give me the confidence I need to stay up there. My descending suffered as a result of the crashes, but I still find the Cervelo a little jittery on fast rough descents. The rear end is very light and rigid so I have to concentrate on keeping my weight back and down as the rear wheel loses grip in a flash (I had a mini slide earlier today when I lost a little grip coming into a sharp bend). Much of this is probably about me rather than the bike! On fast, smooth descents I can fly and the bike handles fantastically even when I need to make quick direction changes, switch from cornering sharp left to right, etc.
Aesthetically the bike looks great, although the black paint job does means that dirt shows up easily (I was the bike every 2 weeks).
In a nutshell, I have zero regrest about buying the Cerveloe, would recommend it to anyone and if I had the cash, would buy 2 so I had one for training and 1 for racing!
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Posted by warrickt
July 22, 2008

Delay, delays….this is the second time in a week that I’ve flown from San Francisco to New York and every single flight so far has been severly delayed (>2 hrs). A glance at the Departures screen shows that I am not alone – at least 70% of the people in the airport at any one time when I was there will have been waiting to get on a delayed flight!
Now I know that the airline industry is facing severe problems – not least of which is the cost of gas and the overburdened infrastructure – but surely getting flights from a to b on time should be the one metric that keeps them up at night! More and more people are taking the train (after all by the time you factor in the delay the train is sometimes quicker and almost certainly far more enjoyable and less stressful), or simply choosing not to travel at all. If the airlines address the bad rap they get from all the delays people will travel more, despite the cost and actually enjoy doing it again.
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Posted by warrickt